Money Flows To John McCain At Intrade

The most accurate prediction market in the world favors John McCain for the first time over his rival Barack Obama. The 'Palin bounce' is sticking so far.

2008 US Election - 2008 Presidential Election Winner (Individual)
John McCain to win 2008 US Presidential Election
	Last Price: 51.0 1.2 You can buy this at 51.1 You can sell this at 51.0

2008 US Election - 2008 Presidential Election Winner (Individual)
Barack Obama to win 2008 US Presidential Election
	Last Price: 48.0 0.9 You can buy this at 48.5 You can sell this at 48.0

Obama holds what is basically a one state lead in the only important measure - the electoral college. That advantage can be flipped with McCain winning his neighboring state of New Mexico and flipping it's 5 electoral votes to the GOP. All eyes will once again be on Ohio. Bush won New Mexico in the 2004 election. Here is a brief update:

Election 2008	Obama	McCain	Spread
RCP National Average	45.2	47.6	McCain +2.4
Favorable Ratings	+18.8	+20.5	McCain +1.7
Intrade Market Odds	48.0	51.0	-
Electoral College	Obama	McCain	Spread
RCP Electoral Count	217	216	Obama +1
No Toss Up States	273	265	Obama +8
Battleground States	Obama	McCain	Spread
Michigan	47.0	45.0	Obama +2.0
Ohio	46.7	46.7	Tie
Pennsylvania	47.3	45.0	Obama +2.3
Virginia	46.7	49.3	McCain +2.6
Colorado	46.4	45.0	Obama +1.4
New Mexico	47.0	44.7	Obama +2.3
More States

Don't expect either candidate to campaign anywhere in California as Obama is holding a double digit lead. Both may stop in to pick up some money from time to time. When you see commercials on TV here in Los Angeles - you are seeing them for one reason: both candidates want to lead in national polling and a lot of people live in Los Angeles (some of which can vote legally).