Money Flows To John McCain At Intrade

The most accurate prediction market in the world favors John McCain for the first time over his rival Barack Obama. The 'Palin bounce' is sticking so far.

2008 US Election - 2008 Presidential Election Winner (Individual)
John McCain to win 2008 US Presidential Election
	Last Price: 51.0 1.2 You can buy this at 51.1 You can sell this at 51.0

2008 US Election - 2008 Presidential Election Winner (Individual)
Barack Obama to win 2008 US Presidential Election
	Last Price: 48.0 0.9 You can buy this at 48.5 You can sell this at 48.0

Obama holds what is basically a one state lead in the only important measure - the electoral college. That advantage can be flipped with McCain winning his neighboring state of New Mexico and flipping it's 5 electoral votes to the GOP. All eyes will once again be on Ohio. Bush won New Mexico in the 2004 election. Here is a brief update:

Election 2008	Obama	McCain	Spread
RCP National Average	45.2	47.6	McCain +2.4
Favorable Ratings	+18.8	+20.5	McCain +1.7
Intrade Market Odds	48.0	51.0	-
Electoral College	Obama	McCain	Spread
RCP Electoral Count	217	216	Obama +1
No Toss Up States	273	265	Obama +8
Battleground States	Obama	McCain	Spread
Michigan	47.0	45.0	Obama +2.0
Ohio	46.7	46.7	Tie
Pennsylvania	47.3	45.0	Obama +2.3
Virginia	46.7	49.3	McCain +2.6
Colorado	46.4	45.0	Obama +1.4
New Mexico	47.0	44.7	Obama +2.3
More States

Don't expect either candidate to campaign anywhere in California as Obama is holding a double digit lead. Both may stop in to pick up some money from time to time. When you see commercials on TV here in Los Angeles - you are seeing them for one reason: both candidates want to lead in national polling and a lot of people live in Los Angeles (some of which can vote legally).

Updates to The Plastico Page

More reasons why The Plastico should be your homepage:

Going into the final two months of the presidential election there is only one poll that you need to pay attention to: Intrade. Intrade is a prediction market that functions similiar to stock markets. These are real people putting real money behind the candidate that they think will win - not who they hope will win. We have moved the Intrade Real Time chart to the upper right corner of the page - that chart is more accurate and more important than any individual poll. It is the only poll that considers everything. Just for the hell of it - here is current national polling recap from Realclearpolitics.com that shows McCain with a 2.4% average lead. The people at Intrade know that this is still the result of a short term bounce:

RCP Average	09/05 - 09/08	--	48.0	45.6	McCain +2.4
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl	09/06 - 09/08	860 RV	45	46	Obama +1
Gallup Tracking	09/06 - 09/08	2737 RV	49	44	McCain +5
Rasmussen Tracking	09/06 - 09/08	3000 LV	48	48	Tie
Hotline/FD Tracking	09/06 - 09/08	924 RV	45	44	McCain +1
ABC News/Wash Post	09/05 - 09/07	LV	49	47	McCain +2
USA Today/Gallup	09/05 - 09/07	823 LV	54	44	McCain +10
CBS News	09/05 - 09/07	655 RV	46	44	McCain +2
CNN/OpinionResearch	09/05 - 09/07	942 RV	48	48	Tie

So when you stop by The Plastico - look on the right side of the page for real time polls, real time traffic, real time sports, and go all the way to the bottom for the real time Los Angeles Gas Map. News Feeds on the left side of the page are also real time. What else can I possibly do for you outside of wiping your butt?

Also, here is the only other Intrade chart of relevance for Plastico minded folks. The following chart is a real prediction for the passage of a California Constitutional Amendment to ban same-sex marriage. This chart will not be posted full time on The Plastico because the proposition will not pass for many reasons. But here it is; feel free to follow it on your own time: (Chart shows the percent chance of banning gay marriage)





If you want to put $ behind your personal BS political Beliefs...
Click here to get started at Intrade.com


First Date Help: How To Guess Who She Is Voting For

This time of year scoring on the first date has an added caveat... you better be ahead of the game when the political questions come up. Here is all the help I can give you so that you don't end up at home alone at 9:30 PM scanning the latest free porn vids at (my favorite site) www.xvideos.com.

So here are some tips and things to think about on your date (sorry guys - this is a Los Angeles only guide for now):

1. Where did you pick her up?
A. Santa Monica/Venice (chick is a Communist nut job - probably vegan... scan carefully for shaved legs and pits before you get too far here)
B. Hollywood. (85% chance she's liberal - let her know that you invest in an abortion fund for impoverished teenage girls in Darfur)
C. West Hollywood. (Common mistake, this is a tranny. Turn back now)
D. Beverly Hills. (This Jewish/Iranian Princess may be culturally conservative and socially liberal; don't show your cards too early here)
E. Brentwood. (Another toss up; be on your best game)
F. Palisades or Malibu. (Save your $ and head over to Silver Reign on Bundy)
G. South Bay. These Girls don't have time to care about politics in between being at the beach all day and drinking all night. Also they all work in restaurants and bars.
H. The Valley. (With the price of gas this chick better be hot) 65% chance she's liberal.
I. Anywhere close to or East of the 5. (Seriously?)

2. Where is she from?
A. Midwest/South. Has family in the military...Ok this is a large percentage of the girls in LA and will require prudent effort. These chicks came here for much more than the Iowa cornfields but it doesn't mean that they are here to invest in Maxine Watters re-election campaign. Continue on to the next Q's.
B. East Coast. Either she is a wealthy elitist liberal or a wealthy elitist conservative; act rich.
C. LA. Unfortunately this tells us very little. But she will have a lot of friends in the area and at least 25% of them will be hotter than her. Try to forget that for now, you already got this far.
D. Orange County. Should be a no brainer conservative but remember if this is a human woman between 18-30... odds are still decent that she wants to go down on Obama.
E. SF/Bay Area. If you need help here - I really can't do anything for you.

3. Does she have fake boobs?
Ok, this is an important issue to deal with just prior to an election or not. The problem is that 50% of these girls do not want you to notice or talk about her funbags and the other 50% do. The answer will be clear after her 2nd drink within a one hour time frame. If you handle the situation properly it may not matter if she is Joe Biden's Wife or one of Palin's pregnant daughters.

The 3 Best Questions you can ask to make her show you the way:
(preface all q's with "This election is crazy...")

1. Do you think McCain picked Palin because he thought she was the best VP he could find or was he just trying to snag some Hillary supporters?

2. If Obama loses the election - do you think that Hillary will be back in 2012?

3. McCain is an American Hero but does his age bring up some important questions that nobody really wants to talk about?

Once she is identified as a left winger:
1. I wish that there was a way to prevent every abortion..... but could you imagine in the year 2008, that we could possibly ever take away the right of a woman to make decisions about her own body.

2. I know that Obama does not have 50 years of experience in politics - but what the Republicans don't understand is that he is lighting a fire of hope for millions of Americans that have never wanted anything to do with politics.

And clothes will begin jumping off her body when you say:

3. Frankly, I have always been a Hillary supporter and I hope great things are ahead for her, but my vote for Barack Obama will be the easiest vote I have ever made in my life.

If she is conservative (don't worry she is just as likely to put out)
1. I'm amazed at the effort to attack Sarah Palin by the media and by Democrats who think that just because she is pro-life that somehow she does not represent women.

2. Can you imagine voting for someone just because they are young, attractive, and give good speeches. Why don't we just elect Zac Efron.

And clothes will begin jumping off her body when you say:

3. John McCain made the decision to accept more torture when all he had to do was put his love of country aside just for a moment. I don't know if Obama can pass that test, but I know McCain already did.

Stay tuned for future articles on How to pretend you practice her religion, How to convince her you are Brad Pitt's cousin, and How to convince your wife that the hot babysitter is the best choice.