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Los Angeles, CA (The Plastico) - A few days ago President Obama made a seemingly bold statement on gay marriage - he supports it. Since then, it has become clear that the President's statement to ABC news was nothing more provocative or supportive than Dick Cheney's statement in 2004 that he too supports same sex marriage. In both cases, both men said they support it but that they also support a states right to ban it outright.
As the smoke cleared, a few things became obvious. Obama had now 'boldly' evolved into Dick Cheney of 2004 (regarding gay marriage), and an electoral shift (temporary or not) was unfolding.
North Carolina, a huge investment for Obama in 2012, may be off the table for Democrats after a decisive 20%+ victory for the gay marriage ban. Those fifteen electoral votes (won by just 14,000) votes in '08 should be Mitt Romney's to lose.
So how does Marco Rubio fit in?
Romney already had to win Florida and Ohio to have any legitimate chance at the White house. Because of that necessity it almost appeared crucial that he win Florida without selecting Rubio. Romney needed to flip other states where he was even further behind Obama. Those states were Virginia (McDonald), Minnesota (Pawlenty), Wisconsin (Ryan) , Colorado (?), Nevada (Sandoval), New Mexico (Martinez) or maybe even New Jersey (Christie) or Pennsylvania (Santorum??? No).
Keep in mind that Romney geographically swings almost no states with his own nomadic past. He's lived in Michigan, Massachusetts, and California and has shown no sign of flipping those Democratic strongholds in '12. However, he likely will swing New Hampshire's 4 electoral votes and he might just need 5 of them.
This is where Rubio comes into play. Obama's gay marriage statement may slip under the rug and it may not. If it doesn't, it hurts Obama with older voters and white working class churchgoers in swing states like Ohio, North Carolina, Missouri, and possibly Minnesota or Wisconsin.
This leaves Obama changing focus to protect his electoral lead by clinging to a flimsy safety net called Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico to replace North Carolina's 15 electoral votes. Obama won these 3 states in 08' and he may need them all for re-election. Marco Rubio may be Romney's only chance to get younger and darker out west while still getting the closest thing Republicans have to a superstar.
Sound racist or ageist to anyone? Indeed, that is the game of electoral votes and Romney needs to cut down Obama's advantage among younger voters and Latino's in the West.
To do this Romney needs to jump on a strategy to put 4 states in play and to strengthen a tiny lead in Arizona. Those four are New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, and Oregon... yes Oregon. Oregon has been a closely contended state the past several elections despite literally no effort being made by the GOP. A recent Survey USA poll had Obama ahead in Oregon by just 4% - right at the margin of error. Certainly, Romney could at least force Obama to spend some unexpected money there.
Keep in mind that Romney has to win Florida and Ohio where he is currently slightly behind but in the margin of error. If Romney was able flip both North Carolina and Virginia back to the GOP he would have a much easier time. But Virginia will be hard to win back; Obama literally has poured many millions in federal stimulus directly into the pockets of Federal employees living in Northern Virginia.
So what if Romney takes North Carolina and Obama holds Virginia? The Plastico Electoral College Team finds the most likely scenario to be a fight out west. A fight that may well end in a National 269-269 tie. So How important does that New Mexico and Colorado vote look now?
So don't be surprised if Marco Rubio is announced before the end of May. But don't expect Rubio to hang out around Florida. You can look for the younger, darker half of the ticket to be arriving at an airport out west to collect some California cash and some potential western votes on the Colorado/New Mexico border.
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