Here's Why Perry/Christie Will Beat Obama/Biden 305 to 233 In The 2012 Electoral College

Extra Extra - The 2012 Election Just Took Shape
Jul.22.2011. The Plastico.

People like maps - so lets get right on it.  First immediately below is the 2008 Map that a Republican has to re-paint:

How Does the Perry Team Change the Minds of 10 Million Americans?

First off, Obama absolutely dominated McCain down the stretch of the 08' election.  The map indicates a strong sweep in which Obama received 7 million more votes than any person in U.S. history.

 

How Does Perry Make that 2012 Map A Reality?

1. Take back the easy reds.  Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia are red leaners that immediately swap 57 Electoral Votes.  Virginia will be tough because huge increases in federal spending have made the northern part of state a quasi DC extension of government money grubbers .  But while the DNC chose North Carolina for their convention they have no chance to hold it and it will prove a wasted opportunity to hold a crucial state such as Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, Wisconsin or even Nevada.  The RNC chose Tampa and that will in part help win Florida back (which is a must).  This leaves Perry down 236 to 302.
2. Indiana. 11 key electoral votes and Obama won the state in 08 despite 9 straight previous GOP wins.  A key opportunity for Perry and a border state to Illinois. This leaves Perry down 247 to 291
3. Nevada. Just 6 EC votes but it will be highly contended. Harry Reid won re-election against the tide last November.  However, Reid barely won against a Tea Party candidate that was rough on the eyes and on the campaign trail. Perry is a bit closer to Nevada's heart and he wont miss a chance to exploit the nations worst housing market. This leaves Perry down 253 to 285
4. Iowa and Colorado.  Both difficult States to judge and both highly in play.  Colorado had gone red 9 of 10 elections prior to 08'.  Iowa is a true swing state but will be turned by the heavy primary work being done by Republicans who will have framed the '12 election into a shape that doesn't fit any picture of Barack Obama. This closes the gap to 270-268 in favor of B.O.
5. CHAOS. Tim Russert will roll over in his grave for missing the chance to put this scenario on the chalk board (but the truth is that if it's a tie - Perry wins). Nebraska has a split vote policy and McCain won 4/5ths of the state in '08.  If Perry gets 5/5 of the red state... then the electoral college would be tied and The House of Representatives (As per the 12th Amendment) would elect Perry based on a likely GOP majority.
6. The Road to 305.  Surely you must have noticed that New Jersey was still on the block. Enter Christie, who is finally able to hand NJ to the GOP.  Ohio, also still on the table, is more likely to recant their 08' votes than Indiana or Virginia and they will.  New Hampshire has been blue for 4 of the last 5 but Christie strikes again and his appeal should bring the 'Live Free or Die' state back in a year that will have long forgotten the hope and change of '08.  Don't think that scenerio is reasonable? It is and it is exactly the 2004 Bush re-election map minus NM and plus NJ and NH.

The final story of 2012

Obama and Perry will circle Obama's home state of Illinois.  But the fighting over Ohio, Indiana, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan is a battlefield of Political death for Obama.  The dirty secret is that a Perry/Christie team could lose all of those and still take the election 270-268 or 269-269 (hereafter dubbed the Perry tie).  New Mexico might simply be forgotten by both candidates and we left it unchanged from '08.  

Uh... OK-

We hear you, back that ass up J-Lo... How did we get here to begin with???

What happened to Romney vs. Bachman? 

The news stories of July '11 will be just a mere headache in 16 months.  Here is a short time-line on how it came to be:

August 2011: Rick Perry announces his candidacy and provides a certificate of live birth. Within days his poll numbers match or beat Romney and Bachman in Iowa. 

February 2011: Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada = Perry, Romney, Perry (or something close to that).  Romney has essentially led the Republican Primary for the past 3 years but not in a way that a health care busting primary season would prefer and thus...it's Perry time to tell a patriotic story about his job creating, housing market fixing, deficit reducing future. 

Why New Jersey Governor Chris Christie for VP?

Two main goals have to be met for the selection of a Vice President in a highly competitive effort to unseat a sitting President.  Can a candidate be found who can both excite the base and appeal to swing voters to win key states. Tim Pawlenty, Scott Brown, Dave Petraeus, Michelle Bachman, John Huntsman, and Mike Pence get about 50-75% of that formula - only Chris Christie is a slam dunk on both.  He wont accept a VP nomination if he thinks Perry can't win because he would smartly wait to run for President in 2016.  So if Christie joins, it's a curtain call for Obama.  Also, as Dick Cheney proved, you can be a little fat and ugly and still be VP. Christie would likely argue that he's not all that ugly.

Wont it be a liability to be 'another Governor from Texas'?

Perry has to win the Republican primary and then win the Electoral College.  If he could boast his same resume while being the governor of Michigan or Ohio then he would be the ideal Obama buster.  But being from Texas wont be the problem that Democrats will say it's going to be.  When Obama talks about the jobs that actually were created, Perry can claim that half of them (yes half) were created in Texas under his Governorship.  So Perry can take credit for a chunk of the good and yet still plaster Obama on stimulus, health care, debt, and the Californication of the country.

Being from Texas might make Democrats like him less, but all Perry needs is the strongest Republican base turnout since 2000 plus 53-55% of Independents and he will sweep his way to D.C.  By no metric will Obama increase his 08' voter turnout and enthusiasm from Democrats, Independents, and young voters. 

The Herman Cain effect might even help him narrow the 08' Black vote down from 96% to... well never-mind. 

One last note on the Texas subject - Perry and W are not the closest of friends; in fact, Perry severed that relationship some time ago with some criticism that did not set well with the Bushy clan but will indeed sit well with voters in 2012. 

What about this Secession thing?

True.  Rick Perry did have some uncomfortable statements a while back concerning a states right or lack thereof to secede.  However, 150 years after the Civil War this issue will probably fall flat with most voters as being simply irrelevant. 

And for those still holding out hope that Caribou Barbie will enter the race and save the world... keep hope alive and send in your tea party dollars where she asks you to send them (she will be a fundraiser and not a candidate).